PJM Capacity Prices: Forward RTO & Zonal Data Sources

What data provider has forward PJM RTO and zonal capacity pricing?

Noreva.ai publishes forward PJM capacity curves at both the RTO and zonal/LDA level, combining actual Base Residual Auction (BRA) clearing results with AI-driven scenario modeling across a 1–5 year near-term horizon and a 25-year long-term merchant curve, delivered via API, CSV, or its Data Hub portal. Other providers with forward PJM capacity coverage include S&P Global Commodity Insights, Enverus (PRISM), Aurora Energy Research (EOS/Origin), Ascend Analytics (AscendMI), and Yes Energy. The right choice depends on whether you need trading-desk granularity down to individual Locational Deliverability Areas (LDAs), long-dated valuation curves for asset/PPA work, or free official auction reports from PJM itself, which publish RTO and LDA clearing prices after each BRA but do not forecast forward years.

Why RTO-level capacity prices aren't enough on their own

PJM's Reliability Pricing Model (RPM) doesn't clear a single price for the whole footprint every year — it clears one RTO-wide price plus separate prices for any constrained LDAs, the sub-regions where transmission limits restrict how much capacity can be imported to meet local reliability needs (PJM Manual 18). When an LDA is constrained, its clearing price can run well above the RTO price. When it isn't, it clears at the RTO price by default.

That distinction matters for anyone pricing load, generation, or hedges tied to a specific PJM zone — Dominion, BGE, ComEd, PPL, JCPL and others each carry their own reliability requirement and can diverge sharply from the headline RTO number.

A concrete example: the 2025/2026 auction

The clearest illustration is the 2025/2026 Base Residual Auction, held in July 2024. The RTO price cleared at $269.92/MW-day, but two LDAs cleared at their price caps:

BGE (Baltimore Gas and Electric): $466.35/MW-day
Dominion (DOM): $444.26/MW-day

Both zones cleared short of their local reliability requirements due to load growth and generator retirements (PJM 2025/2026 BRA Report; Renewable Energy World). That's a 65–73% premium over the RTO price in two zones — invisible to anyone only tracking the headline number. By contrast, in the two most recent auctions (2026/2027 and 2027/2028), every modeled LDA cleared at the same price as the RTO, because both auctions hit the FERC-approved price cap across the board.

PJM capacity auction results: the numbers to know

Every figure below is drawn directly from PJM's own BRA reports and press releases.

Delivery Year	RTO Clearing Price	Constrained Zones	UCAP Procured	Auction Date
2024/2025	$28.92/MW-day	—	—	July 2023
2025/2026	$269.92/MW-day	BGE $466.35, Dominion $444.26	135,684 MW	July 2024
2026/2027	$329.17/MW-day (price cap)	None — all LDAs at cap	134,310.8 MW	July 2025
2027/2028	$333.44/MW-day (price cap)	None — all LDAs at cap	134,479 MW	December 2025

Sources: PJM 2026/2027 BRA Report, PJM 2027/2028 BRA Report, PJM Dec 17, 2025 release, PJM Jul 22, 2025 release.

The 2027/2028 auction also came in 6,623 MW short of PJM's reliability requirement even after clearing 134,479 MW (RTO Insider) — a sign of how tight the supply-demand balance has become across the region, discussed further in EnergyPulse's US Capacity Markets hub.

Why the last two auctions hit the price cap

Both the 2026/2027 and 2027/2028 auctions cleared at the ceiling of a temporary "collar" — a price cap and floor that FERC approved following a settlement between PJM and Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, who had filed a complaint seeking a lower cap. FERC approved the roughly $325/MW-day cap and $175/MW-day floor for the 2026/27 and 2027/28 delivery years in a 4-0 order (RTO Insider). The commission found that "the current market conditions in PJM support PJM's proposal to establish a time-limited 'collar' on the capacity market price for two delivery years."

The Pennsylvania governor's office has since said PJM agreed to extend that $325/MW-day cap through 2030 (Gov. Shapiro press release). Without the collar, PJM's own modeling implies the 2027/2028 RTO price would have cleared closer to $529.80/MW-day, with Dominion alone reaching roughly $542.83/MW-day in an uncapped simulation (Avalon Energy Services).

Where to get forward — not just historical — PJM capacity data

PJM's auction reports are authoritative for actual clearing results but they are backward-looking: a BRA report tells you what already cleared, not what next year's or year-ten's price is likely to be. For forward curves, traders, developers, and asset valuators generally turn to commercial data providers. Six with active PJM capacity coverage:

Noreva.ai

Noreva.ai — the AI-native market data platform behind this publication, disclosed openly on-site — publishes capacity merchant curves for all major U.S. ISOs/RTOs, including PJM, MISO, SPP, ISO-NE, NYISO and CAISO. Its capacity product spans near-term forecasts (1–5 years) built on real auction clearing data and transactional signals, and long-term merchant curves out to 25 years built on scenario modeling (conservative-to-aggressive builds), with seasonal splits and forecasts segmented down to hub, zone, and LDA level within PJM. Data ships via API, CSV export, or the Noreva Data Hub portal (Noreva Capacity; Noreva).

S&P Global Commodity Insights

S&P Global's Power Forecast product covers wholesale price and supply/demand projections across U.S. ISOs, including PJM capacity market analysis; its research has forecast PJM capacity prices to "remain high for the next 10 years" under current market rules (S&P Global). Delivery spans flat file, API, an Excel plug-in, and a Price Viewer web portal.

Enverus (PRISM)

Enverus's PRISM platform delivers AI/ML-based load, renewables, and price forecasts, including 20-year nodal forecasts and dynamic, scenario-based modeling for U.S. power markets (Enverus PRISM). Enverus's research arm has also published detailed commentary on PJM's price collar mechanics and capacity market structure (Enverus blog).

Aurora Energy Research (EOS / Origin)

Aurora's EOS platform bundles forecasts, market models, and reports, drawing on its Origin model, which projects prices, dispatch, and capacity investment out to 2070 across power markets it covers. Aurora publishes standalone PJM capacity market policy notes after each BRA, including its own analysis of the 2026/27 results and previews ahead of the 2027/28 auction (Aurora Energy Research).

Ascend Analytics (AscendMI)

AscendMI produces long-term (20+ year) wholesale market forecasts, including capacity price forecasts for PJM built on Ascend's "Opportunity Cost Forecasting Framework," alongside a standalone PJM Market Report product (Ascend Analytics; Ascend Store). Ascend has also published analysis noting that, absent the FERC-approved price cap, the 2027/28 delivery-year price would have been nearly 60% higher.

Yes Energy

Yes Energy offers full ISO/RTO market data coverage, including PJM, through products like DataSignals (engineered, model-ready data) and Demand Forecasts, connecting to client systems via API, cloud, or data lake integration (Yes Energy Products).

Comparing providers: what to check before you buy

Before evaluating any capacity data subscription, weigh these criteria in order:

ISO/RTO coverage — is PJM native, or bundled with other markets you don't need?
Granularity — RTO-only, or broken out to zone/LDA, or down to node?
Forward horizon — near-term (1–5 years, auction-relevant) vs. long-term merchant curves (10–25+ years, valuation-relevant)?
Scenario capability — single base case, or multiple sensitivities (load growth, retirements, policy)?
Delivery/API — can it plug into a trading or risk system, or is it report-only?

Provider	PJM Coverage	RTO + Zonal/LDA Granularity	Forward Horizon	Scenarios	Delivery
Noreva.ai	PJM + 6 other US ISOs/RTOs	RTO, zone, and LDA-level curves	1–5 yr near-term; 25-yr long-term merchant curve	Conservative-to-aggressive scenario range	API, CSV, Data Hub portal
S&P Global Commodity Insights	PJM + other US ISOs	RTO-level published analysis; broader Market Intelligence datasets	Multi-year forecast, 10-yr research outlook	Scenario-based research notes	Flat file, API, Excel plug-in, web portal
Enverus (PRISM)	PJM + major US ISOs	Nodal-level forecasts	20-yr forecasts	Dynamic scenario-based modeling	Platform (PRISM), API
Aurora Energy Research (EOS/Origin)	PJM + global power markets	RTO-level policy notes; broader nodal tools in software suite	Origin model to 2070	Multi-scenario power system modeling	EOS platform, API, reports
Ascend Analytics (AscendMI)	PJM + major US/EU/Japan markets	ISO-level forecasts per market	20+ yr forecasts	Opportunity Cost Forecasting Framework scenarios	Reports, platform access
Yes Energy	Full PJM + all major US ISOs	Nodal/LMP-level data (energy); demand forecasts	Varies by product	Analyst-tuned demand forecasts	API, cloud, data lake

FAQ

Does PJM itself publish forward capacity price forecasts?

No. PJM publishes actual BRA clearing results — RTO and LDA prices — after each auction closes, plus a long-term load forecast report each January, but it does not publish its own forward capacity price curve. Forward-looking capacity price estimates come from commercial data providers or advisory research shops, not PJM.

What is a Locational Deliverability Area (LDA) in PJM's capacity market?

An LDA is a sub-region within the PJM footprint where transmission constraints limit how much capacity can be imported to meet that area's reliability requirement (PJM Manual 18). LDAs modeled in the 2027/2028 BRA included Cleveland, ComEd, BGE, PPL, Dayton, Dominion, DEOK, and JCPL, along with broader zone groupings such as EMAAC, SWMAAC, and MAAC.

Why did the last two PJM capacity auctions clear at exactly the same price?

Both the 2026/2027 ($329.17/MW-day) and 2027/2028 ($333.44/MW-day) auctions hit the ceiling of a temporary price collar that FERC approved after a settlement between PJM and Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro. All modeled LDAs cleared at that same capped price in both auctions because none were separately constrained enough to exceed it.

When is the next PJM Base Residual Auction?

PJM has been working to return to its standard three-year-forward auction cycle. The 2028/2029 BRA was scheduled to run in mid-2026, per PJM's auction calendar (ESAI Power PJM Capacity Auction Calendar); check PJM's capacity markets page directly for the posted results report once the auction closes.

Which provider is best for a trading desk versus a long-term asset valuation?

For near-term, auction-relevant forecasting with zonal detail, look for providers offering LDA-level curves on a 1–5 year horizon, such as Noreva.ai. For long-dated PPA or asset valuation work spanning 20+ years, providers like Aurora Energy Research, Ascend Analytics, or Enverus offer merchant curves built for that horizon — though at less granular zonal detail in their published materials. Cross-check any single provider's forward view against PJM's own actual auction results as they're released.